Bloomberg headline: Bernanke-Led Economy Shows Critics Wrong About Fed
Inflation under control? Do these people buy groceries?
Trusting mainstream media, is the road to serfdom.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
QE3
No doubt QE3 has been launched, as Jim Sinclare recently commented, with the Swap line facility provided by the US Federal Reserve to ECB, accommodated by the Fed's announcement to hold interest rate close to zero to 2014.
What now? The on-going debt and currency crisis in the developed economies, spawned by the unpeg of the US dollar to gold price in 1971, which led to unlimited money printing in the form of US treasuries for the past few decades, will not be resolved by printing more money.
In the short term, with liquidity now flooding the markets, all asset class should continue to rise.
But for how long?
As history has repeated shown, money printing always come with runaway inflation and currency depreciation.
As a result, the trend in the above graph shall continue.
What now? The on-going debt and currency crisis in the developed economies, spawned by the unpeg of the US dollar to gold price in 1971, which led to unlimited money printing in the form of US treasuries for the past few decades, will not be resolved by printing more money.
But for how long?
As history has repeated shown, money printing always come with runaway inflation and currency depreciation.
As a result, the trend in the above graph shall continue.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Hugh Hendry's view on China
According to Hugh Hendry, China's 'miracle' growth story might come to an end, an ugly one.
During The Russia Forum 2010, he made some stark remarks and nearly got into a fight with Marc Faber.
"I love Jim O'Neill. I love that Goldman Sachs guy. He says you either get it, or you don't. I don't get it. In the future there will be a Confucius saying: the wise man not invest in overcapacity. The flaw of the business model, at the center of it is a craving for power as opposed to profit." His remarks on China starting at 55 minutes into the clip.
Video here.
Who is Hugh Hendry? From FT:
Mr Hendry’s Eclectica Credit Fund is constructed from a portfolio of short positions against highly cyclical Japanese corporate credits that have high exposure to Chinese demand.
The fund, which raised a modest $150m from a handful of London investors when it launched late last year, is up 38.65 per cent so far this year, having returned 22.5 per cent in August – the hedge fund industry’s worst month since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago.
The news comes as concerns of a Chinese slowdown gather speed. Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy central bank governor and vice director of the finance and economy committee of the National People’s Congress, said the economy would cool next year and efforts to spur growth would be constrained by inflation, in an article published on Monday by the Chinese central bank’s official newspaper.
Mr Hendry’s fund is up a further 11 per cent for September, according to an investor. Mr Hendry declined to comment.
In comparison, the average hedge fund has lost money this year, data from Hedge Fund Research show. The HFRI composite index, which tracks performance numbers from across the industry, is down 1.47 per cent since January.
Mr Hendry, a noted contrarian, began raising concerns about a Chinese slowdown in 2009 – even uploading a homemade video on to the popular video sharing site YouTube based on a visit to deserted Chinese real estate developments.
During The Russia Forum 2010, he made some stark remarks and nearly got into a fight with Marc Faber.
"I love Jim O'Neill. I love that Goldman Sachs guy. He says you either get it, or you don't. I don't get it. In the future there will be a Confucius saying: the wise man not invest in overcapacity. The flaw of the business model, at the center of it is a craving for power as opposed to profit." His remarks on China starting at 55 minutes into the clip.
Video here.
Who is Hugh Hendry? From FT:
Mr Hendry’s Eclectica Credit Fund is constructed from a portfolio of short positions against highly cyclical Japanese corporate credits that have high exposure to Chinese demand.
The fund, which raised a modest $150m from a handful of London investors when it launched late last year, is up 38.65 per cent so far this year, having returned 22.5 per cent in August – the hedge fund industry’s worst month since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago.
The news comes as concerns of a Chinese slowdown gather speed. Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy central bank governor and vice director of the finance and economy committee of the National People’s Congress, said the economy would cool next year and efforts to spur growth would be constrained by inflation, in an article published on Monday by the Chinese central bank’s official newspaper.
Mr Hendry’s fund is up a further 11 per cent for September, according to an investor. Mr Hendry declined to comment.
In comparison, the average hedge fund has lost money this year, data from Hedge Fund Research show. The HFRI composite index, which tracks performance numbers from across the industry, is down 1.47 per cent since January.
Mr Hendry, a noted contrarian, began raising concerns about a Chinese slowdown in 2009 – even uploading a homemade video on to the popular video sharing site YouTube based on a visit to deserted Chinese real estate developments.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
What we are facing.
The development in the US and Japan is not going well. How is that? Read through the two articles.
US: The coming crisis in the US and how we should protect ourselves
Japan: The rising sun is, indeed, falling
And finally, to sum it up, I present here an interesting graph:
US: The coming crisis in the US and how we should protect ourselves
Japan: The rising sun is, indeed, falling
And finally, to sum it up, I present here an interesting graph:
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Gold trend
RSI and the price of gold shows 4 waves divergence, i.e. gold price has four peaks, one higher than the previous one (except the last one), while RSI also has 4 peaks, but one lower than the previous one. This is a very strong signal of an adjustment of gold price.
But the adjustment might just provides us a good opportunity to buy gold. It seems that gold still has a long way to reach its peak. The current international monetary system that uses the US dollar as the major anchor is breaking down. Confidence in the US dollar is weakening around the globe. That's why we have witnessed price surge in commodities. Before we reach a new international monetary system, gold will protect us from currencies devaluation and the coming inflation.
But the adjustment might just provides us a good opportunity to buy gold. It seems that gold still has a long way to reach its peak. The current international monetary system that uses the US dollar as the major anchor is breaking down. Confidence in the US dollar is weakening around the globe. That's why we have witnessed price surge in commodities. Before we reach a new international monetary system, gold will protect us from currencies devaluation and the coming inflation.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Low interest rates impact return of insurance policy
From AIA IPO Prospectus:
Low interest environment for the last decade created by the US -- to be specific by Greenspan and Bernanke, reduce the return of insurance companies' investment.
Yields on fixed income securities are highly related to interest rates, lower interest rates would result in lower yields for fixed income securities. As insurance companies invest most of its money in fixed income securities -- for example, AIA has 90% of its investment in fixed income securities -- lower yields received by insurance companies reduce their profit. This directly limit their ability to pay policy holders dividend, such as the non guaranteed dividends.
Not a good idea to use insurance policies for saving under low interest rate environment.
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